Boston's Wakefield aims for win No. 17 in Baltimore

Baseball Betting Lines

09/06/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tim Wakefield targets win No. 17 this evening when the Boston Red Sox open a four-game series with the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards.

Wakefield, who is one victory off the pace of major league leaders Chien-Ming Wang and teammate Josh Beckett, has won his last three starts without giving up a run, but has not pitched since August 25 because of a sore back. He scattered three hits against the Chicago White Sox over seven scoreless innings in that one, as he ran his scoreless innings streak to 22 frames.

The 41-year-old knuckleballer, who is 16-10 with a 4.16 earned run average on the year, has also recorded a decision in all of his 26 starts this season and is the first to do so since Jack McDowell posted decisions in his first 27 starts with the White Sox in 1993.

Wakefield defeated the O's the last time he faced them and is 14-13 lifetime against them with four saves and a 4.06 ERA in 43 games, 30 of which have been starts.

Boston enters tonight's tilt on a sour note after it was denied a sweep in its three-game series with the Toronto Blue Jays, dropping a 6-4 decision in Wednesday's finale at Fenway Park. Jason Varitek hit a two-run homer for the Red Sox, who had a four-game win streak broken and saw their lead in the AL East shrink to six games over the New York Yankees.

Hideki Okajima (3-2) took the loss, while Curt Schilling allowed three runs and eight hits, with a walk and two strikeouts over six innings in the start.

Baltimore, meanwhile, continued to struggle and was crushed by the equally woeful Tampa Bay Devil Rays on Wednesday, 17-2, in the finale of a three-game set at Tropicana Field. Tike Redman doubled in two runs for the Orioles, who have lost 13 of their last 15 games, a stretch that began with a major-league record- setting 30-3 loss to Texas in the first game of a doubleheader on August 22.

Radhames Liz (0-2), in his third major league start, surrendered six hits and four runs through 1 2/3 innings.

Getting the call for the Orioles tonight will be 23-year-old lefty Garrett Olson, who is 1-3 with a 7.22 ERA. Olson was tagged with the loss on Saturday against the Red Sox, as he surrendered four runs and seven his in 5 1/3 innings. He has lost both of his starts to Boston this season.

Boston has won nine of its 14 matchups with the Orioles this season and is 34-16 in the series since the start of the 2005 campaign. The Red Sox have also had success in Baltimore, where they have won in 13 of their last 17 visits.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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