Bulls and Knights meet in Thursday night action

NCAA Football Betting Lines

10/17/2007 - Piscataway, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In a year of upsets, the second-ranked South Florida Bulls will try to avoid one at the hands of the Rutgers Scarlet Knights this Thursday, as the two teams do battle in Big East play in Piscataway.

With several more upsets last weekend in what has been a crazy year of college football, the Bulls, in just their 11th season, currently sit second in the BSC rankings released on Sunday. It is quite a feat for a team that had never been ranked prior to this year, and for a program that is in just its seventh season as a full-time member of the now FBS. USF, which is the fastest club in the modern era of college football to go from upstart program to Top 10 in the rankings, is currently undefeated at 6-0 and that is the best start in school history. Last weekend, the Bulls crushed local rival UCF, 64-12, for their eighth win in a row. The eight straight victories ties USF with Boston College and Hawaii for the longest current winning streak at the FBS level. The Bulls have played just one Big East game this season, a 21-13 triumph over nationally-ranked West Virginia back on September 28th.

As for Rutgers, it is one of the few teams that would understand best what USF is going through right now, considering the Knights themselves, set several school records for success in 2006. Rutgers though, has had some trouble living up to last season's success, as it has already suffered two losses. Still, the team has won twice as many games as it has lost, and that includes a 38-14 triumph over Syracuse this past weekend. The win put an end to a two-game slide and improved Rutgers to 1-1 in Big East play.

The Knights and Bulls have split two prior meetings, with each club winning on the road. USF posted a 45-31 victory in Piscataway in 2005, while Rutgers returned the favor with a 22-20 win in Tampa last season.

The Bulls rolled up 543 yards of total offense, including 178 on the ground, as they scored a season-high 64 points in a route of UCF this past weekend. As has been the case all season long, quarterback Matt Grothe led the charge, rushing for 100 yards and two scores, and passing for 212 yards and two more touchdowns. Grothe, a tremendous competitor and leader, has simply done it all for this USF club, as he leads the team with 346 rushing yards and 1,121 passing. He has accounted for 11 total touchdowns (four rushing) and he is the primary reason why this offense is turning in a solid 35.3 ppg and 393.5 total ypg. Benjamin Williams and Mike Ford are two other players that could have an impact in this game, as the tailbacks have played a big part in the team's rushing averaging of 180.5 ypg. Williams has run for 309 yards and five scores, while Ford has gained 251 yards with five touchdowns as well.

While the offense has been productive this season, it is USF's defense that has really put this program on the map. The unit has been successful against some premier offenses and it comes into the game allowing just 15.7 ppg and only 284.3 total ypg. The Bulls have faced some of the top rushers in the nation along way and they have done a tremendous job in limiting their foes to just 2.9 yards per carry. Generating big plays is nothing new for this defense either, as USF has recorded 20 sacks and forced 21 turnovers. In a dominant performance last weekend, the Bulls created three turnovers and held UCF to a mere 145 total yards in a winning effort. UCF's Kevin Smith entered last weekend as the top rusher in the nation, but USF limited him to just 55 yards on 18 totes. George Selvie continued his tremendous start to the season, as he posted four TFLs to go along with a forced fumble and a sack. In just six games, Selvie has already set the school record for both TFLs (21.5) and sacks (11.5). He leads the nation in both categories as well. Another player worth mentioning is Ben Moffitt, who is one of the leaders of this defense and the team's top tackler with 52 to his credit. He also has eight TFLs and three interceptions on his resume.

The Knights are one of the better offensive teams in the Big East, as they are racking up 37.2 ppg and 489.7 total ypg on the season. The team relies a lot on its ground game, which is averaging 182.2 ypg behind the steady play of Ray Rice. One of the top backs in the country, Rice currently leads the Big East with 818 rushing yards and 14 total touchdowns. Last weekend, Rice erupted for 196 yards and three touchdown on 36 carries, as Rutgers defeated Syracuse. Quarterback Mike Teel also had a big game against Syracuse, completing 20- of-29 pass attempts for 310 yards and two scores. Teel, usually overshadowed by Rice, has had a rather good year, as he has completed 62.5 percent of his throws for an average of 302.8 passing ypg. He has thrown 12 touchdowns against six interceptions. His main target is Tiquan Underwood, who leads the club with 34 catches and 675 receiving yards. Underwood got off to a fast start this season, but since teams have begun to focus on him a bit more, Teel has looked the way of Kenny Britt. Last weekend, Britt pulled down seven balls for 176 yards and a score, while Underwood finished with just two catches for 14 yards. For the year, Britt is hot on the heels of Underwood with 27 catches and 640 receiving yards. Both players have recorded four touchdown this season.

The Knights rank as one of the top defensive units in the Big East, as they are giving up just 17.2 ppg and only 296.8 total ypg. The unit has really flourished against the pass, holding opponents to just 157.7 ypg through the air while recording 16 sacks. Last weekend, Rutgers did a great job on defense, as it held Syracuse to a mere 270 total yards, including 158 via the pass. The defense forced a pair of turnovers and registered five sacks in the victory. Kevin Malast led the way with seven tackles, while Jamaal Westerman and Joe Lefeged each posted two sacks. On the year, Malast is tops on the club with 48 tackles and Westerman is first with 7.0 TFLs and four sacks.

This should be a great game, as both teams have similar strengths and weaknesses and each has a lot on the line. USF is playing with a great deal of confidence, but Rutgers has the homefield advantage. It should be a tight contest from start to finish, but expect the Bulls' defense to make the difference when it matters most.

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Green's comment came in a statement released by the team following an ESPN report that Green decided that rookie Matt Leinart would replace Warner as starter for Sunday's game at Atlanta.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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