Florida inches closer to SEC crown, as Gators host Gamecocks

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/21/2007 - Gainesville, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The third-ranked Florida Gators have been knocked off their perch atop the college basketball world, at least temporarily, but they continue to rule the SEC and are heavy favorites in tonight's matchup with the South Carolina Gamecocks.

South Carolina carried a five-game skid into Saturday's home game against Tennessee, but the result was a thrilling 81-64 victory. The Gamecocks are a game over .500 overall, but their 3-9 league mark leaves much to be desired.

Florida was a perfect 11-0 in SEC play heading into Saturday's road clash with a strong Vanderbilt squad, and the Commodores scored an 83-70 upset victory in that tilt. Still, the Gators are steamrolling toward a regular season league title and are a perfect 16-0 at home.

Also, keep in mind that Florida crushed South Carolina by an 84-50 final back on January 13th, and the Gators own a 31-19 advantage in the all-time series between the teams.

South Carolina guard Tre' Kelley is one of the better players in the SEC, but he doesn't receive a great deal of attention because of the struggles of his team. Despite facing constant double teams, Kelley is averaging 18.3 ppg to rank among the league leaders. He is also dishing out five assists per contest and gives maximum effort every time he takes the floor. Unfortunately, only one other player in the lineup is scoring in double figures, as Brandon Wallace checks in with 10.3 ppg and 9.6 rpg. USC is netting a modest 64.9 ppg on 42.4 percent overall shooting, and the lack of offensive production has resulted in the poor record. Kelley scored 25 points against Tennessee and actually got plenty of support from his teammates for a change in Saturday's win. The Gamecocks shot 53.7 percent from the floor and limited the Vols to 38.2 percent.

After winning the national championship last season, all five starters for Florida decided to return to school rather than give in to the lure of NBA riches. All five standouts are averaging double figures in scoring this season, as the Gators may be the nation's most unselfish team. Taurean Green paces the club with 13.6 ppg on the strength of his 42.2 percent shooting from three-point range, and he has dished out 96 assists. Corey Brewer checks in with 13.0 ppg, and Joakim Noah adds 12.7 ppg, 8.0 rpg and 47 blocks. Al Horford is contributing 12.6 ppg and 8.8 rpg, while Lee Humphrey rounds out the group with 10.2 ppg on 47.4 percent accuracy from behind the arc. The Gators are racking up 81.0 ppg while limiting opponents to 61.0 ppg. Noah scored 15 points to pace Florida in the loss to Vandy, but the freakishly athletic forward only took five shots from the floor and needs to be a bit more assertive at the offensive end. Poor defense led to the defeat, as the Gators permitted the Commodores to shoot 57.1 percent from the field.

Wwgbrowser NCAA Basketball Betting News

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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